Daniel Chapo was inaugurated as Mozambique’s fifth president on January 15, after the Constitutional Court confirmed the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO) party's victory in October's election, marred by the usual electoral fraud and “ghost voters.”
It followed months of mass nationwide protests, the largest uprising against FRELIMO in its nearly half-century of rule since Mozambique's independence from Portugal in 1975. Fearing that the movement could spiral beyond their control, the opposition parties urged an end to the demonstrations, abandoned their parliamentary boycott, and are now seeking dialogue with the new FRELIMO administration—under the auspices of the European Union.
Chapo, the candidate of FRELIMO, which has ruled the country since independence in 1975, is the first president not involved in the guerrilla war against Portuguese colonial rule. The various political factions in Mozambique see an opportunity to redivide the spoils from exploiting one of the world’s poorest countries. Mozambique has vast energy wealth that is central to European imperialist strategy amid war with Russia in Ukraine.
The elections were marred by the usual fraud from FRELIMO, which claimed victory with 71 percent of the vote. But this time, the leading opposition candidate, right-wing evangelical preacher Venâncio Mondlane, declared himself the winner, fled the country, and rode a wave of mass protests driven by deteriorating social conditions. Over the past decade in Mozambique, where the median age is just 17, poverty has skyrocketed from 46 to 65 percent.
While Mondlane called for protests against the government, he firmly opposed any attempt to overthrow FRELIMO, repeatedly stating: “We never said we wanted to attempt a coup d’état.” Instead, he sought support from the European powers to intervene and pressure Chapo to step aside.
Following the Constitutional Court’s ruling, Mondlane returned to the country earlier this month, initially calling to boycott the incoming parliament. What has unfolded since then has only exposed the complete bankruptcy of Mozambique’s so-called opposition to the corrupt FRELIMO.
Mozambique’s newly-elected parliament convened on January 13 in what could have been a humiliating moment for FRELIMO. With the opposition boycotting the swearing-in ceremony, only FRELIMO lawmakers were expected to attend, and authorities braced for mass protests by deploying armored vehicles and roadblocks around parliament.
But the anticipated showdown quickly devolved into political theater when PODEMOS—the breakaway faction of FRELIMO that has become the country’s largest opposition party and under whose ticket Mondlane ran—defied his calls for a boycott and took their seats. They undermined his efforts to challenge the election’s legitimacy.
PODEMOS leader Albino Forquilha told reporters: “We fought not to recognize the results, with large national protests, but the results were validated and we abided by the constitutional order.” The Centre for Democracy and Development accused Forquilha of receiving a bribe from FRELIMO to order Podemos deputies to take their seats.
Mondlane’s original party is RENAMO, the second-largest opposition party after PODEMOS. Its origins lie in Mozambique’s civil war (1977–1992), which launched a guerrilla war against FRELIMO after independence and was backed by the white-supremacist regimes of Rhodesia (today Zimbabwe) and then apartheid South Africa. RENAMO initially joined Mondlane’s boycott alongside the opposition Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), but quickly dropped it.
Since then, Mondlane decided to suspend protests for the first 100 days of FRELIMO rule and told the BBC that he was ready to work in Chapo’s government: “Yes if he has a genuine interest to work with me. He’s got a chance to invite me to the table of dialogue.”
In order “to pacify the country,” and make it safe for foreign investors, Chapo met with opposition party leaders on January 27 to draw up a joint program. Mondlane, who was excluded from the meeting, reacted afterwards by reassuring his readiness to work with the new administration, stating: “I have not yet been contacted [for dialogue…] when I am invited I will present my points of view, I have already passed on this message several times.”
Mondlane’s pleas are backed by the European Union, which insists on a deal between Chapo and Mondlane. “I believe that there is no political solution to this crisis without a dialogue that is truly inclusive and in which Venâncio Mondlane participates,” declared EU mission to Mozambique head Laura Ballarín.
The EU fears protests in Mozambique could jeopardize its huge stakes in Mozambique’s natural resources. European oil companies including TotalEnergies, Eni, and Galp have large stakes in its liquefied natural gas (LNG), with major offshore reserves in the Rovuma Basin. The EU sees Mozambique as a key energy supplier, particularly to diversify its energy sources away from Russian gas.
Major investments are also pouring into the port of Maputo, positioning it as a critical hub in global trade. This aims to accommodate the growing number of container ships rerouted around Africa due to Yemen’s blockade of the Red Sea in response to Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Plans are also underway to construct an LNG terminal linked by pipeline to South Africa.
Several large-scale projects remain stalled, however. Total’s $5 billion hydroelectric dam project is on hold, officially due to the lack of necessary transmission infrastructure. Meanwhile, the $20 billion development of Mozambique’s vast natural gas fields in the north remains suspended due to an ongoing Islamist insurgency that faces a brutal military crackdown by government forces, backed by EU-funded Rwandan troops. Both the insurgents and state security forces have been accused of massacres against civilians in Cabo Delgado.
TotalEnergies is currently under investigation for its role in fueling the violence. So far, the conflict has claimed over 6,000 lives and displaced 2 million people internally.
Last week, to signal to his imperialist backers his willingness to “pacify” Cabo Delgado, Chapo launched a military operation “to identify and dismantle terrorist hideouts, to boost stability in the region.”
There is still substantial popular anger, despite all capitalist parties urging an end to the demonstrations and pushing for a “national unity” government. This effort amounts to little more than a temporary power-sharing deal among Mozambique’s ruling elite, in alliance with imperialism against the masses of workers and oppressed people.
Mozambique’s economic crisis continues to deepen. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) classifies it as at high risk of overall debt distress. It is in the final year of an IMF restructuring program, as international markets demand further “fiscal discipline.” The incoming finance minister estimates economic losses from election protests and their suppression at 3 percent of GDP, while Mozambique’s public debt is fully 93.7 percent of GDP.
The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on all USAID projects pending review has inflamed the crisis. Washington provides approximately $1 billion annually to fund HIV prevention and other healthcare programs in Mozambique—an amount equal to nearly 5 percent of the country’s GDP.
Significantly, the working class is threatening to enter into struggle with its own demands. Civil servants threaten to strike for a traditional New Year Bonus, known as the “13th month.” Denied by the previous government due to budget constraints, President Chapo agreed to pay a bonus in February, 50 percent for most public servants and 100 percent for state pensioners. The Union of Civil Servants rapidly called off the strike, trying to block a broader mobilization of the working class against FRELIMO, claiming they just want to support FRELIMO’s “development goals.”
The critical task confronting the Mozambique masses is the development of a revolutionary leadership in the working class. None of the demands of this mass movement of the past months —for jobs and decent living standards, basic democratic rights and ending the looting of the country by FRELIMO, the IMF, multinational corporations and native capitalists—can be realized outside a struggle by the working class to take political power and reorganize the economy along socialist lines.